GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-41
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 20.0, "implied_p": 0.2} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-41", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.04000000000000001, "prob_error": 0.2, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will 2026 Masters Tournament winner say during 2026 Masters Champion’s Press Conference?". The market currently prices YES at 20.00 cents (implied probability 0.200). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.20
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.2,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.20",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 7.471050977706909
}