GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-41
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 10.0, "implied_p": 0.1} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-41", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.04000000000000001, "prob_error": 0.2, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Chicago wins by over 5.5 Points?". The market currently prices YES at 10.00 cents (implied probability 0.100). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.20
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.2,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.20",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 7.471050977706909
}