GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-40
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 29.0, "implied_p": 0.29} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-40", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.09000000000000002, "prob_error": 0.30000000000000004, "calibration_bin": 7} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will above 100000 jobs be added in March 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 29.00 cents (implied probability 0.290). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.70–0.75. Monthly non-farm payroll gains have exceeded 100k in the vast majority of months over the past decade (typical range 100k–300k, even in a cooling market). The market's 29¢ price looks underpriced relative to that base rate, though a severe downturn could pull a month below 100k, so I'd land around **~0.72** rather than the market's 0.29. (Note: given today's date is Aug 2026, March 2026 is already in the past — if the actual outcome is known, that should override any prior.)
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.7,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.70\u20130.75.\n\nMonthly non-farm payroll gains have exceeded 100k in the vast majority of months over the past decade (typical range 100k\u2013300k, even in a cooling market). The market's 29\u00a2 price looks underpriced relative to that base rate, though a severe downturn could pull a month below 100k, so I'd l",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 14.19910979270935
}