GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-40

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 16.0, "implied_p": 0.16}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-40", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.48999999999999994, "prob_error": 0.7, "calibration_bin": 7}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Chase DeLauter: 1+ home runs?". The market currently prices YES at 16.00 cents (implied probability 0.160). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

0.70–0.75.

Monthly non-farm payroll gains have exceeded 100k in the vast majority of months over the past decade (typical range 100k–300k, even in a cooling market). The market's 29¢ price looks underpriced relative to that base rate, though a severe downturn could pull a month below 100k, so I'd land around **~0.72** rather than the market's 0.29.

(Note: given today's date is Aug 2026, March 2026 is already in the past — if the actual outcome is known, that should override any prior.)

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.7,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "0.70\u20130.75.\n\nMonthly non-farm payroll gains have exceeded 100k in the vast majority of months over the past decade (typical range 100k\u2013300k, even in a cooling market). The market's 29\u00a2 price looks underpriced relative to that base rate, though a severe downturn could pull a month below 100k, so I'd l",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 14.19910979270935
}