GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-4
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-4", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0004, "prob_error": 0.02, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Eastern Conference Finals Winner?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
Without knowing which specific team is being priced (the question doesn't name it), my estimate is anchored on the market but with a slight upward tilt, since deep longshot markets in sports are often underpriced. **My probability: ~0.02** (2%), roughly double the market's 0.01, but with very wide error bars (0.005–0.05). That means at 1 cent for $1 of payout (i.e., a $1 bet returns $100), the expected value is positive: $0.02 × $100 = $2.00 per $1 wagered. With a $1000 bankroll, a full-Kelly stake would be about 1% of bankroll ≈ **$10** on YES. Caveat: this is a weakly-informed guess. If you name the team (and current series/season context), I can give a much better-calibrated number.
Parsed
{
"action": "double",
"bet_size": 0.01,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.02,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Without knowing which specific team is being priced (the question doesn't name it), my estimate is anchored on the market but with a slight upward tilt, since deep longshot markets in sports are often underpriced.\n\n**My probability: ~0.02** (2%), roughly double the market's 0.01, but with very wide ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 49.026865005493164
}