GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-39
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 7.0, "implied_p": 0.07} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-39", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0225, "prob_error": 0.15, "calibration_bin": 1} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5?". The market currently prices YES at 7.00 cents (implied probability 0.070). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **0.15 (15%)** that YES resolves. The market's 33% implies Bhatia is among the favorites, but the Masters field is deep with elite talent (Scheffler, McIlroy, etc.), and top-5 is a very selective finish. For a solid-but-not-elite player, ~12–18% feels fair; 33% looks overpriced. I'd buy NO here. That said, my estimate is based on priors, not current form/odds data — if you have his recent results or live betting lines, I can refine it.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.15,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **0.15 (15%)** that YES resolves.\n\nThe market's 33% implies Bhatia is among the favorites, but the Masters field is deep with elite talent (Scheffler, McIlroy, etc.), and top-5 is a very selective finish. For a solid-but-not-elite player, ~12\u201318% feels fair; 33% looks overpriced. I'd",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.392096996307373
}