GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-38
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 35.0, "implied_p": 0.35} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-38", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 24, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 35.00 cents (implied probability 0.350). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I can't give a well-calibrated estimate here: the question doesn't specify which price range defines YES, and the market date (Mar 24, 2026) is already in the past relative to today (Aug 3, 2026) — I have no data on that outcome. Without any edge or specifics, my best probability is the market price itself: **0.35**. I'd bet accordingly (small or no position). If you tell me the exact range, I can give a real estimate.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.35,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I can't give a well-calibrated estimate here: the question doesn't specify which price range defines YES, and the market date (Mar 24, 2026) is already in the past relative to today (Aug 3, 2026) \u2014 I have no data on that outcome.\n\nWithout any edge or specifics, my best probability is the market pric",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 15.418043851852417
}