GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-37
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 36.0, "implied_p": 0.36} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-37", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.1296, "prob_error": 0.36, "calibration_bin": 3} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 36.00 cents (implied probability 0.360). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.36 — matching the market. Without private information, the market's aggregated probability is my best estimate for an outcome six months out.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.36,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.36 \u2014 matching the market. Without private information, the market's aggregated probability is my best estimate for an outcome six months out.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 7.545760154724121
}