GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-35
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 27.0, "implied_p": 0.27} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-35", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0036, "prob_error": 0.06, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Nebraska qualify for the Men's March Madness Elite Eight?". The market currently prices YES at 27.00 cents (implied probability 0.270). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **~0.06 (6%)** Reasoning: - Nebraska men's basketball has **never won an NCAA Tournament game** in program history (0–7 all-time through 2024, including a 2024 first-round exit). - Reaching the Elite Eight requires 4 straight wins (R64 → R32 → Sweet 16 → Elite Eight). Even for strong teams, that's a stretch; for a program with no tournament wins ever, a 6% chance is already generous. - The market at 27¢ (implied 27%) looks meaningfully overpriced. Betting **NO** is the value side here. So: my probability ≈ **0.06**, well below the market's 0.27.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.06,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **~0.06 (6%)**\n\nReasoning:\n- Nebraska men's basketball has **never won an NCAA Tournament game** in program history (0\u20137 all-time through 2024, including a 2024 first-round exit).\n- Reaching the Elite Eight requires 4 straight wins (R64 \u2192 R32 \u2192 Sweet 16 \u2192 Elite Eight). Even for stron",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.439449787139893
}