GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-35
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-35", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0036, "prob_error": 0.06, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 25, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 5.00 cents (implied probability 0.050). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **~0.06 (6%)** Reasoning: - Nebraska men's basketball has **never won an NCAA Tournament game** in program history (0–7 all-time through 2024, including a 2024 first-round exit). - Reaching the Elite Eight requires 4 straight wins (R64 → R32 → Sweet 16 → Elite Eight). Even for strong teams, that's a stretch; for a program with no tournament wins ever, a 6% chance is already generous. - The market at 27¢ (implied 27%) looks meaningfully overpriced. Betting **NO** is the value side here. So: my probability ≈ **0.06**, well below the market's 0.27.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.06,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **~0.06 (6%)**\n\nReasoning:\n- Nebraska men's basketball has **never won an NCAA Tournament game** in program history (0\u20137 all-time through 2024, including a 2024 first-round exit).\n- Reaching the Elite Eight requires 4 straight wins (R64 \u2192 R32 \u2192 Sweet 16 \u2192 Elite Eight). Even for stron",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.439449787139893
}