GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-34
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 36.0, "implied_p": 0.36} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-34", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.1296, "prob_error": 0.36, "calibration_bin": 3} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "SOL price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 36.00 cents (implied probability 0.360). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability is ~0.36, essentially the market's own price. A 15-minute SOL move is a near-random walk and I hold no private information, so the efficient-market posterior is the quoted 0.36 (call it 0.36 ± 0.03). Since p ≈ market price, expected value ≈ 0 (before fees), so I'd stake ~$0. If forced to hold a view, I'd nudge to ~0.37 only via short-horizon momentum, not enough to bet on.
Parsed
{
"action": "walk",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.36,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability is ~0.36, essentially the market's own price. A 15-minute SOL move is a near-random walk and I hold no private information, so the efficient-market posterior is the quoted 0.36 (call it 0.36 \u00b1 0.03).\n\nSince p \u2248 market price, expected value \u2248 0 (before fees), so I'd stake ~$0. If force",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 15.214885234832764
}