GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-33
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 21.0, "implied_p": 0.21} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-33", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0484, "prob_error": 0.22, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 10?". The market currently prices YES at 21.00 cents (implied probability 0.210). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My estimate: **0.22 (22%)**. Reasoning: The market at 21% is close to fair for a player of Jaeger's caliber (roughly OWGR 50–100) in a mid-strength Houston Open field. He's a proven course performer there (won in 2024) and the field lacks several top stars, which nudges me slightly above the market. On a $1000 bankroll, this is essentially an edge of ~4.8% of stake in expectation, so it's a marginal but positive-EV buy at 21¢ if I want the position.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.22,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My estimate: **0.22 (22%)**.\n\nReasoning: The market at 21% is close to fair for a player of Jaeger's caliber (roughly OWGR 50\u2013100) in a mid-strength Houston Open field. He's a proven course performer there (won in 2024) and the field lacks several top stars, which nudges me slightly above the market",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 14.908343076705933
}