GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-32
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 36.0, "implied_p": 0.36} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-32", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0025000000000000005, "prob_error": 0.05, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the S&P 500 be above 7029.9999 on Apr 16, 2026 at 2pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 36.00 cents (implied probability 0.360). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**My probability: ~5%** Reasoning: Reaching 7029.99 by Apr 2026 requires the S&P 500 to rise roughly 17–40% from realistic early-2025 levels (5–6k) in barely a year. The market's 36% price implies a ~one-in-three chance of that, which looks far too generous for a sub-18-month ~20%+ move. I'd put the true probability near 5%, well below the ask.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.05,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**My probability: ~5%**\n\nReasoning: Reaching 7029.99 by Apr 2026 requires the S&P 500 to rise roughly 17\u201340% from realistic early-2025 levels (5\u20136k) in barely a year. The market's 36% price implies a ~one-in-three chance of that, which looks far too generous for a sub-18-month ~20%+ move. I'd put th",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 9.98879098892212
}