GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-32

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 6.0, "implied_p": 0.06}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-32", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0025000000000000005, "prob_error": 0.05, "calibration_bin": 0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Howard qualify for the Men's March Madness Round of 32?". The market currently prices YES at 6.00 cents (implied probability 0.060). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

**My probability: ~5%**

Reasoning: Reaching 7029.99 by Apr 2026 requires the S&P 500 to rise roughly 17–40% from realistic early-2025 levels (5–6k) in barely a year. The market's 36% price implies a ~one-in-three chance of that, which looks far too generous for a sub-18-month ~20%+ move. I'd put the true probability near 5%, well below the ask.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.05,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "**My probability: ~5%**\n\nReasoning: Reaching 7029.99 by Apr 2026 requires the S&P 500 to rise roughly 17\u201340% from realistic early-2025 levels (5\u20136k) in barely a year. The market's 36% price implies a ~one-in-three chance of that, which looks far too generous for a sub-18-month ~20%+ move. I'd put th",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 9.98879098892212
}