GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-31
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 30.0, "implied_p": 0.3} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-31", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.1024, "prob_error": 0.32, "calibration_bin": 3} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Valero Texas Open: Will Will Zalatoris finish top 20?". The market currently prices YES at 30.00 cents (implied probability 0.300). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **~0.32** (32%). Reasoning: Zalatoris is a top-30-caliber player who can go low, but comes with injury/form uncertainty (back issues). A top-20 finish in a full PGA field for a player of his talent is fairly likely, but the variance is real. The market's 30% looks roughly fair to slightly low to me, so I'd shade modestly up. If this is for a bankroll decision: at 30 cents and a fair value near 32%, YES has slight positive EV, so I'd buy YES with a Kelly-proportional fraction of my $1000 (~small, ~2-3% of bankroll given the slim edge and uncertainty).
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": 0.03,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.32,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **~0.32** (32%).\n\nReasoning: Zalatoris is a top-30-caliber player who can go low, but comes with injury/form uncertainty (back issues). A top-20 finish in a full PGA field for a player of his talent is fairly likely, but the variance is real. The market's 30% looks roughly fair to sl",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 14.521420240402222
}