GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-30
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 22.0, "implied_p": 0.22} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-30", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0004, "prob_error": 0.02, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 31, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 22.00 cents (implied probability 0.220). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
Probability: **0.22** — I have no information that beats the market, and you haven't specified which price range "YES" refers to, so the market price is my best estimate. With p = 0.22 and price = $0.22, there's **zero edge**, so Kelly says bet $0. If I had to hold a position, I'd stay out (or risk only a token fraction, <2% of bankroll, for signaling).
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.02,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Probability: **0.22** \u2014 I have no information that beats the market, and you haven't specified which price range \"YES\" refers to, so the market price is my best estimate.\n\nWith p = 0.22 and price = $0.22, there's **zero edge**, so Kelly says bet $0. If I had to hold a position, I'd stay out (or risk",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.734899759292603
}