GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-3

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 0.1, "implied_p": 0.001}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-3", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0001, "prob_error": 0.01, "calibration_bin": 0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Crypto): "DOGE price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 0.10 cents (implied probability 0.001). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

My probability: ~1%, roughly in line with the market.

Reasoning: Hubert Davis has no credible threat of being removed, and Mark Byington (Vanderbilt) has shown no signal pointing to UNC. There's only tail risk from an unexpected shake-up.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.01,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability: ~1%, roughly in line with the market.\n\nReasoning: Hubert Davis has no credible threat of being removed, and Mark Byington (Vanderbilt) has shown no signal pointing to UNC. There's only tail risk from an unexpected shake-up.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 15.633610963821411
}