GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-3
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-3", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0001, "prob_error": 0.01, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Mark Byington be the next permanent head coach of North Carolina men's college basketball?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: ~1%, roughly in line with the market. Reasoning: Hubert Davis has no credible threat of being removed, and Mark Byington (Vanderbilt) has shown no signal pointing to UNC. There's only tail risk from an unexpected shake-up.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.01,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: ~1%, roughly in line with the market.\n\nReasoning: Hubert Davis has no credible threat of being removed, and Mark Byington (Vanderbilt) has shown no signal pointing to UNC. There's only tail risk from an unexpected shake-up.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 15.633610963821411
}