GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-292
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Ethereum price at Mar 31, 2026 at 2pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}