GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-291
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will RUSTEC win the RUSTEC vs. Team Nemesis CS2 match?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}