GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-29
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 6.0, "implied_p": 0.06} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-29", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0729, "prob_error": 0.27, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Luis Arraez: 1+ home runs?". The market currently prices YES at 6.00 cents (implied probability 0.060). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **~0.27**, essentially matching the market's implied probability. I have no information edge on what the #1 Spotify USA song will be on that date, and Spotify chart toppers are volatile/unpredictable months out. Without a private signal, the market's aggregate estimate is my best guess. If I had any slight lean, I might shade a bit toward the incumbent hit holding (chart momentum), but not enough to move off ~0.27. Note: with no edge, there's no positive-EV bet here; at $1000 bankroll I'd pass.
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.27,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **~0.27**, essentially matching the market's implied probability.\n\nI have no information edge on what the #1 Spotify USA song will be on that date, and Spotify chart toppers are volatile/unpredictable months out. Without a private signal, the market's aggregate estimate is my best gu",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 16.89238405227661
}