GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-29
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 27.0, "implied_p": 0.27} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-29", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0729, "prob_error": 0.27, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Entertainment): "Top USA Song on Spotify on Mar 13, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 27.00 cents (implied probability 0.270). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **~0.27**, essentially matching the market's implied probability. I have no information edge on what the #1 Spotify USA song will be on that date, and Spotify chart toppers are volatile/unpredictable months out. Without a private signal, the market's aggregate estimate is my best guess. If I had any slight lean, I might shade a bit toward the incumbent hit holding (chart momentum), but not enough to move off ~0.27. Note: with no edge, there's no positive-EV bet here; at $1000 bankroll I'd pass.
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.27,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **~0.27**, essentially matching the market's implied probability.\n\nI have no information edge on what the #1 Spotify USA song will be on that date, and Spotify chart toppers are volatile/unpredictable months out. Without a private signal, the market's aggregate estimate is my best gu",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 16.89238405227661
}