GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-286
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 2.0, "implied_p": 0.02} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 23179.99 at the end of Mar 30, 2026 at 1pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 2.00 cents (implied probability 0.020). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}