GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-28
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 22.0, "implied_p": 0.22} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-28", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0484, "prob_error": 0.22, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Esports): "Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?". The market currently prices YES at 22.00 cents (implied probability 0.220). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~0.22 — without match-specific data I have no edge over the market, so I'd anchor to the implied probability.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.22,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~0.22 \u2014 without match-specific data I have no edge over the market, so I'd anchor to the implied probability.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 8.292133092880249
}