GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-28

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-28", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0484, "prob_error": 0.22, "calibration_bin": 2}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the S&P 500 be above 7034.9999 on Apr 16, 2026 at 3pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 5.00 cents (implied probability 0.050). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

~0.22 — without match-specific data I have no edge over the market, so I'd anchor to the implied probability.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.22,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "~0.22 \u2014 without match-specific data I have no edge over the market, so I'd anchor to the implied probability.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 8.292133092880249
}