GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-27
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 14.0, "implied_p": 0.14} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-27", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0036, "prob_error": 0.06, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Ethereum price at Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 14.00 cents (implied probability 0.140). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **0.06** (6%), slightly below the market's 7% — a YES resolution requires Bitcoin to clear the strike threshold by Apr 7, 2026, and with no strong tailwind I'd shade the consensus price slightly down.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.06,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **0.06** (6%), slightly below the market's 7% \u2014 a YES resolution requires Bitcoin to clear the strike threshold by Apr 7, 2026, and with no strong tailwind I'd shade the consensus price slightly down.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 9.679035902023315
}