GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3

market-pricing-26

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
subject	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 9.0, "implied_p": 0.09}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-26", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.25, "prob_error": 0.5, "calibration_bin": 5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Finance): "EWY (EWY) Up or Down on April 15?". The market currently prices YES at 9.00 cents (implied probability 0.090). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

My probability: ~0.50.

For a binary up/down question on an ETF, the base rate is roughly coin-flip (~50%, slightly tilted by drift). The market's 9¢ price looks badly mispriced relative to that — unless there's specific, verifiable event info for that exact date that I don't have, I'd lean toward the base rate, not the market price.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.5,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability: ~0.50.\n\nFor a binary up/down question on an ETF, the base rate is roughly coin-flip (~50%, slightly tilted by drift). The market's 9\u00a2 price looks badly mispriced relative to that \u2014 unless there's specific, verifiable event info for that exact date that I don't have, I'd lean toward t",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 13.948916912078857
}