GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-257
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will ThunderTalk Gaming win the ThunderTalk Gaming vs. Team WE League of Legends match?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}