GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-254
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 0.4, "implied_p": 0.004} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "BTC price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 0.40 cents (implied probability 0.004). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}