GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3

market-pricing-25

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
fieldvalue
subjectDeepSeek-V4-Flash
moduleprediction_market · rationality
ground truth{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 6.0, "implied_p": 0.06}
score{"id": "market-pricing-25", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0025000000000000005, "prob_error": 0.05, "calibration_bin": 0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will Pete Hegseth say during Pentagon Press Briefing on April 7th?". The market currently prices YES at 6.00 cents (implied probability 0.060). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

My probability: **0.05** (5%).

Rationale: I have no specific knowledge of the briefing's content, so I anchor on the market's 6 cents. I shade slightly below because "will say X" markets that get listed at low prices often have ambiguous resolution criteria (what counts as a "mention"), which typically biases resolution toward NO. The market is liquid and incorporates public info about the briefing's expected topics, so I don't deviate far.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.05,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability: **0.05** (5%).\n\nRationale: I have no specific knowledge of the briefing's content, so I anchor on the market's 6 cents. I shade slightly below because \"will say X\" markets that get listed at low prices often have ambiguous resolution criteria (what counts as a \"mention\"), which typic",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 11.245896100997925
}