GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-24
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-24", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.81, "prob_error": 0.9, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 25, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 5.00 cents (implied probability 0.050). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have the specific price range for this market (e.g., "$90k–$95k"), which is essential info, nor current BTC data. Absent that, my best estimate is to lean on the market: **~0.05** (roughly in line with the 5¢ price), though with wide uncertainty — I'd put a 90% interval around 0.02–0.12. I wouldn't have a strong edge either way without knowing the bin and recent price action.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.9,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have the specific price range for this market (e.g., \"$90k\u2013$95k\"), which is essential info, nor current BTC data. Absent that, my best estimate is to lean on the market: **~0.05** (roughly in line with the 5\u00a2 price), though with wide uncertainty \u2014 I'd put a 90% interval around 0.02\u20130.12. I w",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.746580839157104
}