GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-22

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 7.0, "implied_p": 0.07}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-22", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.25, "prob_error": 0.5, "calibration_bin": 5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Valspar Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 5?". The market currently prices YES at 7.00 cents (implied probability 0.070). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

~50%. Over a random 15-minute window, XRP moves up roughly as often as down (slight drift/variance effects aside). The market's 5¢ price is severely mispriced; I'd put the true probability near 0.50, not 0.05.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.5,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "~50%. Over a random 15-minute window, XRP moves up roughly as often as down (slight drift/variance effects aside). The market's 5\u00a2 price is severely mispriced; I'd put the true probability near 0.50, not 0.05.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 9.731826782226562
}