GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-21
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 19.0, "implied_p": 0.19} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-21", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Apr 6, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 19.00 cents (implied probability 0.190). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability is approximately 0.19, essentially matching the market's implied probability. Rationale: I have no private information about this specific market's range or resolution conditions (and Apr 6, 2026 is already past from today's perspective, so I can't update on live price action). Without an edge, the efficient response is to anchor to the market price — no reason to move off it. If anything, a small calibration discount might apply, but not enough to meaningfully shift from 0.190.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.19,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability is approximately 0.19, essentially matching the market's implied probability.\n\nRationale: I have no private information about this specific market's range or resolution conditions (and Apr 6, 2026 is already past from today's perspective, so I can't update on live price action). Witho",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 18.531534910202026
}