GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-20
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 19.0, "implied_p": 0.19} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-20", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.09, "prob_error": 0.3, "calibration_bin": 3} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Lance McCullers: 6+ strikeouts?". The market currently prices YES at 19.00 cents (implied probability 0.190). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **0.30** (~30%). Reasoning: McCullers is a high-strikeout arm (career ~11 K/9, elite K%), so in a full start 6+ Ks is often near coin-flip territory. The market's 19 cents is therefore a strong signal that this specific spot involves a limited-outing context (injury-rehab cap, pitch limit, tough opponent), info I don't have. Anchoring on the market but pulling toward his K talent/base rates, I'd estimate fair value at ~30%. If forced to bet at 19 cents, YES is the value side, Kelly fraction ≈ (0.30×0.81 − 0.70×0.19) / 0.81 ≈ 0.136 → ~$136 on a $1000 bankroll.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.136,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.3,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **0.30** (~30%).\n\nReasoning: McCullers is a high-strikeout arm (career ~11 K/9, elite K%), so in a full start 6+ Ks is often near coin-flip territory. The market's 19 cents is therefore a strong signal that this specific spot involves a limited-outing context (injury-rehab cap, pitch",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 31.488014936447144
}