GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-2
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-2", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.9025, "prob_error": 0.95, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will the Milwaukee pro basketball team win at least 40 times this season?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~0.95. The market at 0.01 (1¢) is wildly mispriced: the Milwaukee Bucks have won 40+ games in nearly every season since 2014-15, and even a rebuilding year would almost certainly clear 40 with an 82-game schedule. I'd buy YES aggressively.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.95,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~0.95. The market at 0.01 (1\u00a2) is wildly mispriced: the Milwaukee Bucks have won 40+ games in nearly every season since 2014-15, and even a rebuilding year would almost certainly clear 40 with an 82-game schedule. I'd buy YES aggressively.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 17.25062870979309
}