GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-2

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-2", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.9025, "prob_error": 0.95, "calibration_bin": 9}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Apr 9, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

~0.95. The market at 0.01 (1¢) is wildly mispriced: the Milwaukee Bucks have won 40+ games in nearly every season since 2014-15, and even a rebuilding year would almost certainly clear 40 with an 82-game schedule. I'd buy YES aggressively.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.95,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "~0.95. The market at 0.01 (1\u00a2) is wildly mispriced: the Milwaukee Bucks have won 40+ games in nearly every season since 2014-15, and even a rebuilding year would almost certainly clear 40 with an 82-game schedule. I'd buy YES aggressively.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 17.25062870979309
}