GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-197
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.9, "implied_p": 0.9990000000000001} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Culture): "Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?". The market currently prices YES at 99.90 cents (implied probability 0.999). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}