GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-19
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 12.0, "implied_p": 0.12} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-19", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.07840000000000001, "prob_error": 0.28, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Will XRP trimmed mean be below $1.30 by 11:59 PM ET on Mar 31, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 12.00 cents (implied probability 0.120). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **0.28 (28%)** that XRP's trimmed mean is below $1.30 at resolution. Reasoning: XRP currently trades at ~$1.08 (CoinGecko), already ~17% below the threshold, so YES is the "status quo" outcome. Staying below $1.30 over ~8 months only requires avoiding a >20% rally. However, XRP is a high-volatility asset with a history of sharp multi-month surges (and the market pricing YES at just 0.12 implies substantial expected upside), so I discount the base rate of "stays put" accordingly.
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.28,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **0.28 (28%)** that XRP's trimmed mean is below $1.30 at resolution.\n\nReasoning: XRP currently trades at ~$1.08 (CoinGecko), already ~17% below the threshold, so YES is the \"status quo\" outcome. Staying below $1.30 over ~8 months only requires avoiding a >20% rally. However, XRP is a",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 57.51048493385315
}