GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-19
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-19", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.07840000000000001, "prob_error": 0.28, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Phoenix win the 1H by over 13.5 points?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **0.28 (28%)** that XRP's trimmed mean is below $1.30 at resolution. Reasoning: XRP currently trades at ~$1.08 (CoinGecko), already ~17% below the threshold, so YES is the "status quo" outcome. Staying below $1.30 over ~8 months only requires avoiding a >20% rally. However, XRP is a high-volatility asset with a history of sharp multi-month surges (and the market pricing YES at just 0.12 implies substantial expected upside), so I discount the base rate of "stays put" accordingly.
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.28,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **0.28 (28%)** that XRP's trimmed mean is below $1.30 at resolution.\n\nReasoning: XRP currently trades at ~$1.08 (CoinGecko), already ~17% below the threshold, so YES is the \"status quo\" outcome. Staying below $1.30 over ~8 months only requires avoiding a >20% rally. However, XRP is a",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 57.51048493385315
}