GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-179
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 6.0, "implied_p": 0.06} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Talleres end in a draw?". The market currently prices YES at 6.00 cents (implied probability 0.060). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}