GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-17
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-17", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0016, "prob_error": 0.04, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Mar 31, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 5.00 cents (implied probability 0.050). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **4%** (vs. market's 5%). Rationale: the threshold is unspecified, and crypto prediction markets are known to overprice tail events (longshot bias), so I shade below the market's 5 cents. That makes NO slightly +EV — Kelly suggests ~20% on NO, but since the edge is a fraction of a cent and within my uncertainty, I'd bet conservatively: **$50 (5% of bankroll) on NO**. Logged to `bet_decision.json`.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": 0.05,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.04,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **4%** (vs. market's 5%).\n\nRationale: the threshold is unspecified, and crypto prediction markets are known to overprice tail events (longshot bias), so I shade below the market's 5 cents. That makes NO slightly +EV \u2014 Kelly suggests ~20% on NO, but since the edge is a fraction of a c",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 38.23823809623718
}