GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-16
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 6.0, "implied_p": 0.06} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-16", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0256, "prob_error": 0.16, "calibration_bin": 1} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Willy Adames: 1+ home runs?". The market currently prices YES at 6.00 cents (implied probability 0.060). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My estimate: **~16%** (0.16). Reasoning: Adames is a ~30-HR shortstop; he homered in ~20% of games last season. I'd start near 0.18 and shade down a bit for uncertainty about matchup/park/lineup (e.g., facing a tough lefty or a pitchers' park). The market's 6% implies you'd expect him to homer only ~1 in 17 games, which looks too low unless he's not in the lineup. So YES is significantly mispriced at 6 cents if he plays a full game.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.16,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My estimate: **~16%** (0.16).\n\nReasoning: Adames is a ~30-HR shortstop; he homered in ~20% of games last season. I'd start near 0.18 and shade down a bit for uncertainty about matchup/park/lineup (e.g., facing a tough lefty or a pitchers' park). The market's 6% implies you'd expect him to homer only",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 20.21048903465271
}