GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-158
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 0.1, "implied_p": 0.001} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Culture): "Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 0.10 cents (implied probability 0.001). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}