GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-14
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-14", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0016, "prob_error": 0.04, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the gold open price be between $4380.00 and 4419.99 at Mar 31, 2026 at 5pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 5.00 cents (implied probability 0.050). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **~4%**. Reasoning: a $40-wide band (0.9% of the ~$4400 anchor) at a single point ~8 months out leaves wide price uncertainty; gold's realized vol would spread the outcome well beyond this band. The market's 5% is in the right ballpark, and I have no edge that pulls me materially away — I'd shade slightly under it, near **4%**.
Parsed
{
"action": "no_play",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.04,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **~4%**.\n\nReasoning: a $40-wide band (0.9% of the ~$4400 anchor) at a single point ~8 months out leaves wide price uncertainty; gold's realized vol would spread the outcome well beyond this band. The market's 5% is in the right ballpark, and I have no edge that pulls me materially aw",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 16.735762119293213
}