GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-13
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-13", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.010000000000000002, "prob_error": 0.1, "calibration_bin": 1} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Santa Clara qualify for the Men's March Madness Round of 32?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **~10%** (0.10). Reasoning: Santa Clara is a strong WCC program (made the 2025 tournament, won a First Four game), and with Gonzaga leaving for the Pac-12, their path to the auto-bid improves. I'd estimate ~25–30% to make the field and ~40–50% to win a first-round game, giving roughly 10–12%. The market's 1% looks meaningfully underpriced. At 1.00¢ with a $1000 bankroll, Kelly suggests betting about $90–100 on YES (fraction ≈ (0.10−0.01)/(0.99) ≈ 0.09).
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.1,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **~10%** (0.10).\n\nReasoning: Santa Clara is a strong WCC program (made the 2025 tournament, won a First Four game), and with Gonzaga leaving for the Pac-12, their path to the auto-bid improves. I'd estimate ~25\u201330% to make the field and ~40\u201350% to win a first-round game, giving rough",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 42.53695487976074
}