GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-125
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 83.0, "implied_p": 0.83} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Ripple price at Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 83.00 cents (implied probability 0.830). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}