GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-117
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 94.0, "implied_p": 0.94} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 6500.01 by Jan 1, 2027?". The market currently prices YES at 94.00 cents (implied probability 0.940). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}