GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-116
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 87.0, "implied_p": 0.87} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Politics): "Will number of transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 20 from Mar 9, 2026 to Mar 15, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 87.00 cents (implied probability 0.870). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}