GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-114
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 94.0, "implied_p": 0.94} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will MOUZ NXT win the fnatic vs. MOUZ NXT CS2 match?". The market currently prices YES at 94.00 cents (implied probability 0.940). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}