GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-112
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 90.0, "implied_p": 0.9} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the S&P 500 be above 6584.9999 on Mar 25, 2026 at 10am EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 90.00 cents (implied probability 0.900). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}