GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-11
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-11", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.2025, "prob_error": 0.45, "calibration_bin": 4} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Eyupspor vs Samsunspor Winner?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **~45%** for YES (Eyupspor winning at home). The market's 1% is a clear mispricing — no realistic football match winner is 1%. I'd buy YES aggressively: at a 0.01 entry, the contract has massive positive expected value, and Kelly sizing would put roughly **40–50% of bankroll (~$400–500)** into it.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": 0.5,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.45,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **~45%** for YES (Eyupspor winning at home). The market's 1% is a clear mispricing \u2014 no realistic football match winner is 1%. I'd buy YES aggressively: at a 0.01 entry, the contract has massive positive expected value, and Kelly sizing would put roughly **40\u201350% of bankroll (~$400\u20135",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 21.244812965393066
}