GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-105
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 92.0, "implied_p": 0.92} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the S&P 500 be above 6499.9999 on Apr 2, 2026 at 4pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 92.00 cents (implied probability 0.920). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}