GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-104
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 74.0, "implied_p": 0.74} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the silver close price be above $75.99 on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 74.00 cents (implied probability 0.740). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}