GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-100
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 68.0, "implied_p": 0.68} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Entertainment): "Top Global Song on Spotify on Apr 14, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 68.00 cents (implied probability 0.680). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}