GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-10

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-10", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.2025, "prob_error": 0.45, "calibration_bin": 4}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Climate and Weather): "Will the **high temp in Philadelphia** be 71-72° on Mar 27, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

~0.45. A "win map 1" outcome can only be one of two teams winning the map, so even a significant underdog has roughly a 35–45% chance; the market's 0.010 is a gross mispricing (I'd buy YES well above that).

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.45,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "~0.45. A \"win map 1\" outcome can only be one of two teams winning the map, so even a significant underdog has roughly a 35\u201345% chance; the market's 0.010 is a gross mispricing (I'd buy YES well above that).",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 10.246539115905762
}