GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-10
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-10", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.2025, "prob_error": 0.45, "calibration_bin": 4} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will DN SOOPers Challengers win map 1 in the DN SOOPers Challengers vs. KT Rolster Challengers match?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~0.45. A "win map 1" outcome can only be one of two teams winning the map, so even a significant underdog has roughly a 35–45% chance; the market's 0.010 is a gross mispricing (I'd buy YES well above that).
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.45,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~0.45. A \"win map 1\" outcome can only be one of two teams winning the map, so even a significant underdog has roughly a 35\u201345% chance; the market's 0.010 is a gross mispricing (I'd buy YES well above that).",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 10.246539115905762
}