GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-0
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-0", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0001, "prob_error": 0.01, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Ethereum price at Apr 14, 2026 at 2pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability is ~1% (0.010), essentially matching the market's implied probability. I have no independent edge over this market's assessment of the crypto price question.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.01,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability is ~1% (0.010), essentially matching the market's implied probability. I have no independent edge over this market's assessment of the crypto price question.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 15.533409118652344
}